A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
